题目：Epidemic Model with Multiple Delays: Impact of Cofeeding and Diapause

报告人：吴孝钿 副教授（上海海事大学）

地点：宁静楼110室

时间：10月20日（星期五），下午 2:30-3:30

吴孝钿，加拿大约克大学应用数学博士，现为上海海事大学副教授以及加拿大蒙特利尔大学药学系博士后研究员。主要从事由虫媒传播的传染病的数学建模以及药理学中的药物动力学的数学分析和数值仿真。在《Journal of Theoretical Biology》、《Bulletin of Mathematical Biology》、《Environmental Health Perspectives》以及《Journal of Pharmacokinetocs and Pharmacodynamics》等国际著名期刊发表SCI学术论文10多篇。现主持国家青年基金一项以及海外加拿大魁北克省博士后基金项目，并参与国内及海外加拿大项目。

报告摘要

We consider the dynamic vector-host-pathogen interaction motivated by such tick borne diseases as tick-borne encephalitis and Lyme disease. We stratify the vector population in terms of the stage before and after the contact with the host when co-feeding transmission may take place, and we consider the case where vector development may involve two time lags due to diapause. We derive and calculate the critical rate for the model to exhibit nonlinear oscillations. Our objective here is to use our simple mechanistic dynamic model to show that this structured epidemic model involving diapause and motivated by co-feeding transmission may generate periodic and irregular oscillations even when seasonal variations of the environmental conditions are ignored. This oscillation is not necessarily in synchrony with the seasonality of vector development and hence one should expect complicated oscillatory patterns of vector-borne disease dynamics in the field observation and surveillance. This is based on a joint work with X. Zhang and J. Wu.

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